Book
Sales Expectations - What is Realistic?
Most new authors have no idea how book sales happen or what numbers to
expect. A typical successful book from a major publisher
sells between 20,000 and 40,000 copies. Healthy book sales
from a smaller publisher may number at least 5,000 copies, whereas a
self-published book may be considered promising if it sells as few as
1,000 copies to a wide audience.
Set your sales goals high but your expectations
lower. Obviously you want high sales for you book;
otherwise, why do all the work? But be clear about your
vision. If you plan to author a book for your own seminar
business, your expectations will necessarily be different from those of
the author who wants to become a world-class speaker and subject-matter
guru. Clearly a book about diets will have broader market appeal than a
book on corporate strategic planning.
Your ability to drive book sales will also depend on the name
recognition you’ve already established. Someone
like Dr. Phil McGraw can realistically expect his next book to sell
millions of copies regardless of the subject matter. How’s
your name recognition?
Book
Sales Channels
Several potential markets are in place for books. Most people
are surprised to hear that less than half of book sales each year are
through bookstores, leaving other possibilities for authors to
pursue.
Many new authors just assume their book will appear in
bookstores. If the book is self-published, it is very
unlikely you will be able to crack the bookstore market; therefore, it
will be important to consider:
• Sales through your own Web site
• Sales through Amazon.com and
BarnesandNoble.com
• Sales through other Web sites
and affiliate programs
• Sales through print catalogs
• Sales to specialty markets for
premium incentives (organizations and corporations)
• Sales to mass merchandisers or
other retailers
Almost the only way to get your book into national bookstore chains is
to be published by a traditional publisher. They have the
distribution methods in place to make this possible.
You may choose to self-publish and work on sales through some of these
non-bookstore channels, get to credible sales figures, and then
approach a traditional publisher to finally hit that desirable
bookstore market.
Tracking
Sales
If you sell your own book, you know exactly how many books you printed,
how many have been sold, and how many are left to be sold in the
printing.
Oddly enough, when books are published by traditional publishers and go
through the bookstore system, there are very few avenues open for
authors and even publishers to track "real" sales of books.
The Bookscan report from Neilsen Broadcast Data Systems, available
since 2001, provides weekly sales by the major book retailers. But only
the very largest companies can afford this expensive service.
It is virtually impossible to estimate the real sales of a book from
the quantities that are shipped to the stores. Remember, all
"sales” to bookstores are made with a long-established,
full-price return policy anytime. That means all the books could be
returned to you, even a year later. Major publishers expect
overall return rates of 20 percent to 30 percent, but individual books
can be much, much higher.
When your book is returned, it doesn’t mean that someone
bought it, didn’t like it, and sent it back through the
bookstore. Far more likely, it was never sold in the first
place, and the bookstore returned it to the distributor after sixty to
ninety days.
You will see sales numbers on your royalty statement, but generally
there is also a reserve for expected returns as well.
Best
Sellers
It seems that most authors these days say their book is a best seller,
and that’s because there is no established, objective
criteria for what that means. There are roughly forty
national and regional best-seller lists in the United States.
The New York Times’ list is probably the most well-known and
respected. Another one that is well-known, especially inside
the publishing industry, is provided by Publishers Weekly
(PW). In 2006, 442 adult titles were declared best-sellers,
according to the Publisher’s Weekly compilations.
Some best-seller lists such as those belonging to Publisher’s
Weekly and USA Today are based on national surveys, with others on much
less objective criteria. The New York Times bases their list
on a poll of both chain and independent bookstores. The list
from the American Booksellers Association polls only independent
bookstores. The Los Angeles Times polls thirty bookstores in the Los
Angeles metropolitan area to compile its list.
Only eight self-published books have made it to number one on the
Publishers Weekly best seller list.
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